Today I was reading a great presentation by William Quigley on the current state of venture capital (curiosity only mind you, there is no scoop here).
Within the presentation there is a breakdown of PC Unit Sales through 2015 by Forrester. I can’t say I agree with it. In fact I disagree with it so much in fact I took few moments to make my own chart!
Bottom line: I predict by 2015 2/3rds of US homes will be purchasing tablets/smart phones as their primary PC. A bit aggressive, but possible. Desktops will not even be considered (unless you redefine a desktop as a 60” TV with embedded CPU/net capable.), laptops will hold steady.
PC: It stands for personal computer right? If you have a device that computes within your personal space, you’ve got a PC. They think a tablet is a PC (Ok, great!), then why isn’t a smart phone like the iPhone? It’s even more personal, and computers like nobody’s business. As the PC increasingly becomes a portal to our cloud life, it will come in all shapes and sizes.
Chart thoughts:
- Mobile- It’s a mistake to not include mobile as an exclusive computing platform for both home and office users. It’s not out of scope when it’s responsible for killing laptop/desktop share. It’s relevant, it should be there. It is accelerating the demise of the desktop.
- Tablets- aren’t done. Why they think the market tops out at 38% is beyond me. You know what’s done in the future—v
- Netbooks- The category is done both in name and concept. Either you have a laptop, or a tablet. There isn’t room for a third in the market.
- Desktops - we both agree they’ll shrink, however I think they’ll shrink faster than Forrester thinks. My reasoning is cost & capability. Laptops have already exceeded needed capabilities for average users. For those that need more performance, you now have a virtual supercomputer via the net at your hands. Why stick one under your desk? Doesn’t make sense. I think IT will accelerate this existing consumer trend.
